Richard Ivers has given up worrying about where the market is going on any day. He says these are times to focus on what individual stocks are really doing.

US inflation data has shocked economists and investment strategists. Wall Street has tumbled and the ASX is a sea of red, as headlines scream about billions of dollars wiped off equities.

But Richard Ivers, one of Australia’s top small-cap stock pickers, is a sea of calm.

“We’re not doing anything. That might sound strange, but we’re literally not trading at all,” he says when this column catches up with him on Wednesday afternoon, with the ASX down more than 2.5 per cent.

Ivers cheerfully admits he’s hopeless at reading macro market moves, and he’s given up trying. The secret to the success of his Prime Value Emerging Opportunities Fund, which he manages with fellow market veteran Mike Younger, is old-fashioned, shoe-leather stock picking. Ivers and his team average about five meetings a day with companies, and tend to hold stocks for an average of four years.

The fund was the best-performing small-cap strategy based on three-year returns in Mercer’s last survey, but is also the only small-cap fund in the top quartile of Mercer’s rankings for each of the past three financial years.

It has produced a three-year return of 14.1 per cent per annum, although over 12 months it is down 10.1 per cent, compared to a 13.3 per cent fall in the Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index. But this is not the fund’s benchmark; unusually, it has a fixed benchmark of an 8 per cent return, which Ivers says reflects both the long-term rate of return an investor can expect from the market and a desire to generate absolute returns for investors.

Not tracking an index creates a different approach to risk management. There is no attempt to look at stock weightings and manage risk, and instead Ivers and Younger focus on the risk/reward characteristics of their stocks.

The starting point is a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach that is a mix of value and growth investing, and a criteria that every stock must be able to deliver a 10 per cent annual return. Then the fund balances larger positions in what it believes are lower-risk picks that can perform regardless of conditions, with smaller positions in more cyclical ideas.

Ivers gives a real life example. One of its largest holdings at present is Propel Funeral Partners; the slowly rising death rate won’t be hurt by inflation, the business has good pricing power and the management team has a track record of smart acquisitions. At the other end, it has a holding in mortgage broker Australian Finance Group. While it’s tough being exposed to the housing market, Ivers sees a quality company that could jump if worst fears about rates aren’t realised.

“We’re trying to balance a pretty conservative portfolio with not going completely all in on defensiveness.”

The key remains those company meetings and continuing to look at stocks over and over again, so that when conditions change – inflation rises, or COVID-19 hits, or profits weaken – the fund is ready to buy.

Ivers’ advice in volatile markets is simple: “Just look past the short-term noise and focus on the fundamentals of the stocks you own and where they’ll be in a few years’ time.

“And don’t worry too much about the movements day-to-day. It’ll drive you crazy.”

Source: Australian Financial Review
James Thomson is a Chanticleer columnist based in Melbourne.

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